* we rename the current probability estimator to be the "apriori"
probability estimator to distinguish from a different implementation
later
* the AprioriEstimator is exported to later be able to type switch
* getLocalPairProbability -> LocalPairProbabiltiy (later part of an
exported interface)
* getPairProbability -> getPairProbabiltiy (later part of an exported
interface)
We multiply the apriori probability with a factor to take capacity into
account:
P *= 1 - 1 / [1 + exp(-(amount - cutoff)/smearing)]
The factor is a function value between 1 (small amount) and 0 (high
amount). The zero limit may not be reached exactly depending on the
smearing and cutoff combination. The function is a logistic function
mirrored about the y-axis. The cutoff determines the amount at which a
significant reduction in probability takes place and the smearing
parameter defines how smooth the transition from 1 to 0 is. Both, the
cutoff and smearing parameters are defined in terms of fixed fractions
of the capacity.
Extends the pathfinder with a capacity argument for later usage.
In tests, the inserted testCapacity has no effect, but will be used
later to estimate reduced probabilities from it.
This prepares for decoupling the result interpretation of a single
payment attempt from the information stored in mission control memory
on the history of a node pair. A planned follow-up where we store both
the last success and last failure requires this decoupling.
This commit changes mission control to partially base the estimated
probability for untried connections on historical results obtained in
previous payment attempts. This incentivizes routing nodes to keep all
of their channels in good shape.
