From 3810e976d6a3956dff9e66077415cf04c1fe1f90 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Alex Morcos Date: Tue, 7 Mar 2017 11:33:44 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] Rewrite estimateSmartFee Change the logic of estimateSmartFee to check a 60% threshold at half the target, a 85% threshold at the target and a 95% threshold at double the target. Always check the shortest time horizon possible and ensure that estimates are monotonically decreasing. Add a conservative mode, which makes sure that the 95% threshold is also met at longer time horizons as well. --- src/policy/fees.cpp | 89 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-- src/policy/fees.h | 4 +- src/rpc/client.cpp | 1 + src/rpc/mining.cpp | 19 +++++-- src/test/policyestimator_tests.cpp | 9 +-- test/functional/smartfees.py | 4 +- 6 files changed, 104 insertions(+), 22 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/policy/fees.cpp b/src/policy/fees.cpp index e9d137e7f05..2b22d59ffb6 100644 --- a/src/policy/fees.cpp +++ b/src/policy/fees.cpp @@ -658,31 +658,107 @@ CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateRawFee(int confTarget, double successThr return CFeeRate(median); } -CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool) const + +/** Return a fee estimate at the required successThreshold from the shortest + * time horizon which tracks confirmations up to the desired target. If + * checkShorterHorizon is requested, also allow short time horizon estimates + * for a lower target to reduce the given answer */ +double CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateCombinedFee(unsigned int confTarget, double successThreshold, bool checkShorterHorizon) const +{ + double estimate = -1; + if (confTarget >= 1 && confTarget <= longStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + // Find estimate from shortest time horizon possible + if (confTarget <= shortStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { // short horizon + estimate = shortStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_TXS_SHORT, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + } + else if (confTarget <= feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { // medium horizon + estimate = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + } + else { // long horizon + estimate = longStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + } + if (checkShorterHorizon) { + // If a lower confTarget from a more recent horizon returns a lower answer use it. + if (confTarget > feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + double medMax = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(feeStats->GetMaxConfirms(), SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + if (medMax > 0 && (estimate == -1 || medMax < estimate)) + estimate = medMax; + } + if (confTarget > shortStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + double shortMax = shortStats->EstimateMedianVal(shortStats->GetMaxConfirms(), SUFFICIENT_TXS_SHORT, successThreshold, true, nBestSeenHeight); + if (shortMax > 0 && (estimate == -1 || shortMax < estimate)) + estimate = shortMax; + } + } + } + return estimate; +} + +double CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateConservativeFee(unsigned int doubleTarget) const +{ + double estimate = -1; + if (doubleTarget <= shortStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + estimate = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(doubleTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight); + } + if (doubleTarget <= feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { + double longEstimate = longStats->EstimateMedianVal(doubleTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight); + if (longEstimate > estimate) { + estimate = longEstimate; + } + } + return estimate; +} + +CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool, bool conservative) const { if (answerFoundAtTarget) *answerFoundAtTarget = confTarget; double median = -1; - { LOCK(cs_feeEstimator); // Return failure if trying to analyze a target we're not tracking - if (confTarget <= 0 || (unsigned int)confTarget > feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) + if (confTarget <= 0 || (unsigned int)confTarget > longStats->GetMaxConfirms()) return CFeeRate(0); // It's not possible to get reasonable estimates for confTarget of 1 if (confTarget == 1) confTarget = 2; - while (median < 0 && (unsigned int)confTarget <= feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { - median = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget++, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, true, nBestSeenHeight); + assert(confTarget > 0); //estimateCombinedFee and estimateConservativeFee take unsigned ints + + /** true is passed to estimateCombined fee for target/2 and target so + * that we check the max confirms for shorter time horizons as well. + * This is necessary to preserve monotonically increasing estimates. + * For non-conservative estimates we do the same thing for 2*target, but + * for conservative estimates we want to skip these shorter horizons + * checks for 2*target becuase we are taking the max over all time + * horizons so we already have monotonically increasing estimates and + * the purpose of conservative estimates is not to let short term + * fluctuations lower our estimates by too much. + */ + double halfEst = estimateCombinedFee(confTarget/2, HALF_SUCCESS_PCT, true); + double actualEst = estimateCombinedFee(confTarget, SUCCESS_PCT, true); + double doubleEst = estimateCombinedFee(2 * confTarget, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, !conservative); + median = halfEst; + if (actualEst > median) { + median = actualEst; + } + if (doubleEst > median) { + median = doubleEst; + } + + if (conservative || median == -1) { + double consEst = estimateConservativeFee(2 * confTarget); + if (consEst > median) { + median = consEst; + } } } // Must unlock cs_feeEstimator before taking mempool locks if (answerFoundAtTarget) - *answerFoundAtTarget = confTarget - 1; + *answerFoundAtTarget = confTarget; // If mempool is limiting txs , return at least the min feerate from the mempool CAmount minPoolFee = pool.GetMinFee(GetArg("-maxmempool", DEFAULT_MAX_MEMPOOL_SIZE) * 1000000).GetFeePerK(); @@ -695,6 +771,7 @@ CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoun return CFeeRate(median); } + bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::Write(CAutoFile& fileout) const { try { diff --git a/src/policy/fees.h b/src/policy/fees.h index 03adbac4d2c..7064ad15c13 100644 --- a/src/policy/fees.h +++ b/src/policy/fees.h @@ -155,7 +155,7 @@ public: * confTarget blocks. If no answer can be given at confTarget, return an * estimate at the lowest target where one can be given. */ - CFeeRate estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool) const; + CFeeRate estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool, bool conservative = true) const; /** Return a specific fee estimate calculation with a given success threshold and time horizon. */ @@ -199,6 +199,8 @@ private: /** Process a transaction confirmed in a block*/ bool processBlockTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, const CTxMemPoolEntry* entry); + double estimateCombinedFee(unsigned int confTarget, double successThreshold, bool checkShorterHorizon) const; + double estimateConservativeFee(unsigned int doubleTarget) const; }; class FeeFilterRounder diff --git a/src/rpc/client.cpp b/src/rpc/client.cpp index afc1fa1c79f..455d1dc722d 100644 --- a/src/rpc/client.cpp +++ b/src/rpc/client.cpp @@ -106,6 +106,7 @@ static const CRPCConvertParam vRPCConvertParams[] = { "getrawmempool", 0, "verbose" }, { "estimatefee", 0, "nblocks" }, { "estimatesmartfee", 0, "nblocks" }, + { "estimatesmartfee", 1, "conservative" }, { "estimaterawfee", 0, "nblocks" }, { "estimaterawfee", 1, "threshold" }, { "estimaterawfee", 2, "horizon" }, diff --git a/src/rpc/mining.cpp b/src/rpc/mining.cpp index 74e5ba5f44c..9f6cab861ca 100644 --- a/src/rpc/mining.cpp +++ b/src/rpc/mining.cpp @@ -828,16 +828,20 @@ UniValue estimatefee(const JSONRPCRequest& request) UniValue estimatesmartfee(const JSONRPCRequest& request) { - if (request.fHelp || request.params.size() != 1) + if (request.fHelp || request.params.size() < 1 || request.params.size() > 2) throw std::runtime_error( - "estimatesmartfee nblocks\n" + "estimatesmartfee nblocks (conservative)\n" "\nWARNING: This interface is unstable and may disappear or change!\n" "\nEstimates the approximate fee per kilobyte needed for a transaction to begin\n" "confirmation within nblocks blocks if possible and return the number of blocks\n" "for which the estimate is valid. Uses virtual transaction size as defined\n" "in BIP 141 (witness data is discounted).\n" "\nArguments:\n" - "1. nblocks (numeric)\n" + "1. nblocks (numeric)\n" + "2. conservative (bool, optional, default=true) Whether to return a more conservative estimate which\n" + " also satisfies a longer history. A conservative estimate potentially returns a higher\n" + " feerate and is more likely to be sufficient for the desired target, but is not as\n" + " responsive to short term drops in the prevailing fee market\n" "\nResult:\n" "{\n" " \"feerate\" : x.x, (numeric) estimate fee-per-kilobyte (in BTC)\n" @@ -854,10 +858,15 @@ UniValue estimatesmartfee(const JSONRPCRequest& request) RPCTypeCheck(request.params, boost::assign::list_of(UniValue::VNUM)); int nBlocks = request.params[0].get_int(); + bool conservative = true; + if (request.params.size() > 1 && !request.params[1].isNull()) { + RPCTypeCheckArgument(request.params[1], UniValue::VBOOL); + conservative = request.params[1].get_bool(); + } UniValue result(UniValue::VOBJ); int answerFound; - CFeeRate feeRate = ::feeEstimator.estimateSmartFee(nBlocks, &answerFound, ::mempool); + CFeeRate feeRate = ::feeEstimator.estimateSmartFee(nBlocks, &answerFound, ::mempool, conservative); result.push_back(Pair("feerate", feeRate == CFeeRate(0) ? -1.0 : ValueFromAmount(feeRate.GetFeePerK()))); result.push_back(Pair("blocks", answerFound)); return result; @@ -951,7 +960,7 @@ static const CRPCCommand commands[] = { "generating", "generatetoaddress", &generatetoaddress, true, {"nblocks","address","maxtries"} }, { "util", "estimatefee", &estimatefee, true, {"nblocks"} }, - { "util", "estimatesmartfee", &estimatesmartfee, true, {"nblocks"} }, + { "util", "estimatesmartfee", &estimatesmartfee, true, {"nblocks", "conservative"} }, { "hidden", "estimaterawfee", &estimaterawfee, true, {"nblocks", "threshold", "horizon"} }, }; diff --git a/src/test/policyestimator_tests.cpp b/src/test/policyestimator_tests.cpp index 94de72ba47d..0d7ca1251fa 100644 --- a/src/test/policyestimator_tests.cpp +++ b/src/test/policyestimator_tests.cpp @@ -83,11 +83,6 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates) BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(1) == CFeeRate(0)); BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(2).GetFeePerK() < 9*baseRate.GetFeePerK() + deltaFee); BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(2).GetFeePerK() > 9*baseRate.GetFeePerK() - deltaFee); - int answerFound; - BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(1, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(2) && answerFound == 2); - BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(2, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(2) && answerFound == 2); - BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(4, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(4) && answerFound == 4); - BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(8, &answerFound, mpool) == feeEst.estimateFee(8) && answerFound == 8); } } @@ -143,10 +138,8 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates) mpool.removeForBlock(block, ++blocknum); } - int answerFound; for (int i = 1; i < 10;i++) { BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateFee(i) == CFeeRate(0) || feeEst.estimateFee(i).GetFeePerK() > origFeeEst[i-1] - deltaFee); - BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(i, &answerFound, mpool).GetFeePerK() > origFeeEst[answerFound-1] - deltaFee); } // Mine all those transactions @@ -194,7 +187,7 @@ BOOST_AUTO_TEST_CASE(BlockPolicyEstimates) mpool.TrimToSize(1); BOOST_CHECK(mpool.GetMinFee(1).GetFeePerK() > feeV[5]); for (int i = 1; i < 10; i++) { - BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(i, NULL, mpool).GetFeePerK() >= feeEst.estimateFee(i).GetFeePerK()); + BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(i, NULL, mpool).GetFeePerK() >= feeEst.estimateRawFee(i, 0.85, FeeEstimateHorizon::MED_HALFLIFE).GetFeePerK()); BOOST_CHECK(feeEst.estimateSmartFee(i, NULL, mpool).GetFeePerK() >= mpool.GetMinFee(1).GetFeePerK()); } } diff --git a/test/functional/smartfees.py b/test/functional/smartfees.py index b7f4b86e7b4..aafdb148462 100755 --- a/test/functional/smartfees.py +++ b/test/functional/smartfees.py @@ -116,8 +116,8 @@ def check_estimates(node, fees_seen, max_invalid, print_estimates = True): for i,e in enumerate(all_estimates): # estimate is for i+1 if e >= 0: valid_estimate = True - # estimatesmartfee should return the same result - assert_equal(node.estimatesmartfee(i+1)["feerate"], e) + if i >= 13: # for n>=14 estimatesmartfee(n/2) should be at least as high as estimatefee(n) + assert(node.estimatesmartfee((i+1)//2)["feerate"] > float(e) - delta) else: invalid_estimates += 1